maha::software

What's Eating Google Android?

Whats-eating-gilbert-grape

So earlier today I came across a great article by Caleb Elston on deciphering Android's woes.  I commented on his post and thought I would share and expand on that here.

Since I wrote a post about Apple the other day in terms of Jurassic Park philosophy, I thought I'd find a movie to relate Google Android to.  The first one that came to mind: What's Eating Gilbert Grape.  A really beautiful movie, and one of my favorites.  Other than the title, though, I'm not sure there's much in common with the movie and Google Android.  Oh well.  Here are a few lines of dialogue from the movie just for kicks:

Becky: I love the sky. It's so limitless.  
Gilbert: It is big. It's very big. 
Becky: Big doesn't even sum it up, right? That word big is so small. 

Gilbert: God Arnie, you're getting so big. Pretty soon I ain't gonna be able to carry you no more.  
Arnie Grape: No, you're getting littler Gilbert. You're getting littler, you're shrinking! You're shrinking Gilbert, you're shrinking! Shrinking, shrinking, shrinking! 

Becky: Tell me what you want as fast as it comes to you.  
Gilbert: I wanna be a good person. 
 
Anyhoo... back to the subject at hand.  Successful products and successful platforms think about: customer, customer, customer.  I ask myself-- what is Google thinking about? I think it's: search, search, search. (And, as a corollary: ads, ads, ads). Google's core motivation is to be the search platform for mobile. They want to be the way that everybody finds anything from their phone. They will probably get there. The result of this focus shows in the really innovative things that Google is doing with voice search and image search (Google Goggles). 

When Android first came out, I told people that this was just like the old desktop OS battles between Apple and Microsoft.  Apple = control of the stack; Microsoft = decouple software from hardware.  Microsoft came out on top.  The analogy to today is clearly: Apple = control of the stack; Google = decouple software from hardware.  I then told people that's why Android would eventually overtake iPhone OS.  I don't believe that anymore.  Microsoft wanted to make a better product, and arguably, in many ways they did.  Without a doubt, they wanted to dominate the desktop OS.

I don't think Google's real focus, or their strength, is in executing a platform like Android well. They don't want to dominate the mobile OS.  Not as much as Apple does.  And I think this spells doom, or worse, mediocrity, for Android.

Apple must avoid becoming Jurassic Park

"John, the kind of control you're attempting is not possible. If there's one thing the history of evolution has taught us, it's that life will not be contained. Life breaks free. It expands to new territories. It crashes through barriers painfully, maybe even dangerously, but - well, there it is... I'm simply saying that, uh, life finds a way."  Dr. Ian Malcolm, Jurassic Park

So, Apple is at it again.  Rejecting apps and feeling the wrath of John Q. Public.  The question is: are they right, or aren't they?

As I pondered this question, I was reminded of the Jurassic Park quote above, memorably recited by Jeff Goldblum aka Dr. Ian Malcolm.  To jog your memory, this is the scene where the gang finds dinosaur eggs out in the wild, the thing that was supposed to be impossible because all the dinos were bio-engineered to be female. (If someone can find the video of this scene, please post in the comments... I scoured the web for it and came up empty handed).

How does this relate to Apple?  Well, Apple may be thinking something like this-- we released the iPhone, we were the first to come out with a major SDK, we were the first with an AppStore and a seamless distribution mechanism.  So we can control whatever we want!  We're the best, and the control of every part of the software and hardware stack is what makes us the best.

The thing is-- they've unleashed the dogs, they've created a monster they can't control, they've created... well, a new form of life.  Now that we've got this new form of life- the programmable, networked computer in a pocket- we ask ourselves: How is it going to evolve?  And I think Dr. Ian Malcolm is right on the money here as well: the evolution of the smartphone will not be contained within artificial barriers or constraints.  Life will not be controlled.  Life will find a way.

This is not a moral argument.  I'm not saying that Apple should open up their platform because it's the "right thing to do."  I'm not saying they're being "evil."  People often reply to an article like this by saying: "It's their phone, it's their platform; if you don't like it, use something else."  I don't disagree with any of that but it misses the point.  The point isn't that Apple is obligated to open up their platform; it's that if they don't, their big, beautiful, grand theme park is gonna crumble.  And then the dinosaurs will escape and eat us all.  You don't want that, do you?